Today is June 29. Tomorrow, July 1, Canada, the United States, and Mexico sit down for their first trilateral meeting to formally open the CUSMA review. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is in Utah right now, on his third trip to the United States this month, meeting with American lawmakers before that meeting happens. And Canadian businesses, according to CBC News this morning, are watching with a mix of anxiety and hope.
That combination of anxiety and hope is exactly the right description of where the Canadian apparel industry sits today.
What Actually Happens Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s trilateral meeting is the formal opening of a process, not the resolution of one. Under Article 34.7 of CUSMA, if all three parties confirm in writing that they wish to extend the agreement, the term is extended for another 16 years until 2042. If any party does not confirm, CUSMA remains in force but becomes subject to annual joint reviews until its scheduled expiry in 2036.
Canada and Mexico have both formally requested a 16-year extension. Trump said last week he would be willing to sign, but would prefer to see the agreement “terminated.” He also said he would rather have it “expire immediately” than wait 10 years. Most trade analysts believe actual withdrawal is unlikely, because it would require six months written notice and trigger enormous economic disruption across deeply integrated North American supply chains. The most probable outcome tomorrow is that the U.S. signals neither full renewal nor withdrawal, triggering annual reviews for the remainder of the agreement’s current term.
Annual reviews mean annual uncertainty. For Canadian apparel importers, that is the operating condition for the foreseeable future.
What the Economy Is Actually Doing While This Plays Out
Canada’s economy slipped into a technical recession during the six months from October 2025 through March 2026. Business investment has fallen for five straight months. Deloitte expects 2026 will see annualized GDP growth of just 0.7%, down from 1.7% in 2025. The top risk cited in their report was trade uncertainty surrounding CUSMA, which has put businesses in a holding pattern and kept investment subdued.
Deloitte’s report notes that once there is clarity on CUSMA, uncertainty would dissipate and conditions could improve for sectors currently facing high tariffs. But clarity tomorrow is not guaranteed. What is more likely is the beginning of a long negotiating process, with Canadian businesses navigating the uncertainty quarter by quarter.
The Advice That Actually Helps Right Now
Unifor national president Lana Payne put it simply this morning: “Stay calm, hold the line, don’t lose your nerve.” That is good advice for the macro level. At the sourcing level, the practical translation is this: stop waiting for certainty before building the supplier relationships you are going to need regardless of what CUSMA becomes.
The buyers who are best positioned for annual CUSMA reviews are the ones who already have verified supplier relationships outside the CUSMA corridor, in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Honduras, India, and Egypt. Those relationships do not get disrupted by what happens in tomorrow’s trilateral meeting. They exist independently of whatever the U.S. negotiating position turns out to be. And building them takes time that the buyers who are still waiting for certainty are currently spending on the sidelines.
Tomorrow opens the review. September opens the next sourcing window. Apparel Textile Sourcing Canada arrives in Toronto on September 23, just weeks into the formal review process, with verified global manufacturers from every region that matters for Canadian supply chain diversification already on the floor.
The buyers who show up in Toronto with a sourcing problem to solve will leave with relationships that can address it. The ones still waiting for the CUSMA picture to get clear will still be waiting.
Register now at www.appareltextilesourcing.com. Toronto, September 23 to 25 at The International Centre. Montreal, September 28. Free to attend.
